The world is facing a surge in geopolitical and economic uncertainty, with a new Ipsos survey revealing that "geoeconomic confrontation" is now seen as the biggest risk facing the global community. What this really means is that the use of economic tools like trade, investment, and sanctions as strategic weapons by major powers has become the top concern for business leaders, policymakers, and civil society experts.
Conflict, Not Climate, Dominates Near-Term Worries
According to the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index for January 2026, over half of the 1,300 experts surveyed expect the world to be "turbulent or stormy" over the next two years. This is a sharp increase from the previous year, with only 1% anticipating a period of calm in 2026 - a year that has already seen escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, and no end in sight to the war in Ukraine.
The big takeaway is that environmental risks, which had previously dominated the global risk landscape, have now been overshadowed by more immediate geopolitical and economic concerns. While extreme weather events and biodiversity loss remain the top long-term risks, they have slipped down the rankings in the short term as policymakers and business leaders grapple with the fallout from economic conflicts between major powers.
The Rise of Geoeconomic Warfare
At the heart of this anxiety is the new era of geoeconomic competition, where countries are increasingly wielding economic tools as strategic weapons. According to Ian Bremmer, a foreign affairs columnist and editor-at-large at TIME, the U.S. is "unwinding its own global order," with President Trump's aggressive policies partly responsible for unleashing this geoeconomic conflict.
The bigger picture here is that as the U.S. and China vie for technological and economic supremacy, the world is being pulled into a new era of great power rivalry. This is manifesting in everything from trade wars and investment restrictions to the weaponization of supply chains and the race for critical resources. And as this dynamic plays out, it is crowding out concerns about long-term existential threats like climate change.
Emerging Risks: AI and Technological Anxiety
Interestingly, the Ipsos survey also highlighted the growing anxiety over the potential downsides of artificial intelligence (AI). This issue has soared higher and faster than any other in the risk rankings, underscoring the widespread unease about the societal and geopolitical implications of this transformative technology.
As the world grapples with the fallout from economic conflicts and the uncertainty of great power rivalry, the rise of AI as a major source of global risk is a stark reminder that the future will be shaped by a complex web of technological, geopolitical, and environmental challenges. The path forward will require deft navigation and a willingness to address both short-term crises and long-term existential threats.